Weather Update: Above-Normal Rainfall Likely Across India in May, Says IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that most parts of India are likely to receive above-normal rainfall in May 2026, offering early signs of an active pre-monsoon phase. However, some regions—particularly parts of east, northeast, and east-central India—may experience below-normal rainfall.

🌧️ Rainfall Outlook

According to IMD, the overall rainfall across the country during May is expected to exceed normal levels. This could help ease heat conditions in several regions and support early agricultural activities.

The southwest monsoon is also expected to begin its journey over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands between May 14 and May 16, which is considered a typical onset window.

🌡️ Temperature Trends

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that:

• Minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal in many parts of India.
• However, some areas in northwest India, central India, parts of peninsular India, and southern northeast India may see normal to below-normal night temperatures.

🔥 Heatwave Warning

Despite the rainfall outlook, heatwave conditions are still expected in certain regions, including:

• Foothills of the Himalayas
• East coast states
• Gujarat
• Maharashtra

These areas may experience above-normal heatwave days, indicating a mixed weather pattern for the month.

🌊 Role of El Niño

The IMD also highlighted that neutral conditions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are shifting toward El Niño conditions.

• El Niño refers to the warming of ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
• Its development during the monsoon season can influence rainfall patterns, sometimes leading to irregular or reduced monsoon rainfall in India.

The IMD’s forecasting models suggest that El Niño may develop during the upcoming southwest monsoon season, which could impact rainfall distribution later.

🌩️ April Weather Recap

In April 2026:

• Most parts of India recorded normal to below-normal daytime temperatures.
• However, southern peninsular regions experienced above-normal heat.
• The country was affected by seven western disturbances, which contributed to weather variability.

📊 What This Means

• Positive sign: Above-normal May rainfall may support water availability and agriculture.
• Concern: Heatwaves in key regions and potential El Niño development could complicate the monsoon outlook.
• Uncertainty ahead: While May looks wetter, the monsoon season (June–September) will depend heavily on how El Niño evolves.